Aggregation of Expert Opinions By
نویسندگان
چکیده
Conflicts of interest arise between a decision maker and agents who have information pertinent to the problem because of differences in their preferences over outcomes. We investigate how the decision maker can extract the information by distorting the decisions that will be taken. We show that only slight distortions will be necessary when agents’ signals are sufficiently accurate or when the number of informed agents becomes large. We argue that the particular mechanisms analyzed are substantially less demanding informationally than those typically employed in implementation and virtual implementation. Further, the mechanisms are immune to manipulation by small groups of agents. © 2008 Published by Elsevier Inc. JEL classification: C72; D71; D82
منابع مشابه
Aggregation of expert opinions and uncertainty theories
The problem of expert opinions representation and aggregation has long been adressed in the only framework of probability theory. Nevertheless, recent years have witnessed many proposals in other uncertainty theories (possibility theory, evidence theory, imprecise probabilities). This paper casts the problem of aggregating expert opinions in a common underlying framework and shows how uncertain...
متن کاملMethods for combining experts' probability assessments
This article reviews statistical techniques for combining multiple probability distributions. The framework is that of a decision maker who consults several experts regarding some events. The experts express their opinions in the form of probability distributions. The decision maker must aggregate the experts' distributions into a single distribution that can be used for decision making. Two cl...
متن کاملMethods of aggregation of expert opinions in the framework of intelligent products
Intelligent products may be considered as information vectors, conveying their own information from a phase of its life cycle to another. Considering that such a product could be made with “communicating material”, in previous work, a data dissemination process has been developed with the aim of selecting information from a database, that should be stored on the product according to the current...
متن کاملThe Transferable Belief Model for Expert Judgments and Reliability Problems
We show how the transferable belief model (TBM) can be used to assess and to combine expert opinions. The transferable belief model has the advantage that it can handle weighted opinions and their aggregation without the introduction of any ad hoc methods. We also study a paradigm in reliability analysis. It shows that the TBM analysis leads to a solution diametrically opposed to the Bayesian s...
متن کاملExpert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.
متن کاملA Hierarchical Fusion of Expert Opinion in the TBM
We define a hierarchical method for expert opinion aggregation that combines consonant beliefs in the Transferable Belief Model. Experts are grouped into schools of thought, then opinions are aggregated using the cautious conjunction operator within groups and the noninteractive disjunction across. This method is illustrated with a realworld dataset including 16 experts.
متن کامل